4thand4cast ↳ powered by GIE
Sign in

Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

This week in college football

Latest from 4thand4cast

All articles
Analysis

Pick 'Em Week 3: How the Pool Shook Out

Ole Miss's 32–24 win over LSU stands as the week's defining moment not because it was unpredictable, but because it arrived with a…

Ole Miss's 32–24 win over LSU stands as the week's defining moment not because it was unpredictable, but because it arrived with a 22% pregame probability and still felt narrow. The model assigned LSU a 78% chance. The…

Ole Miss's 32–24 win over LSU stands as the week's defining moment not because it was unpredictable, but because it arrived with a 22% pregame probability and still felt narrow. The model assigned LSU a 78% chance. The human field,…

Top 25

Full rankings

Ratings as of 2026 Week 10 · Change vs. last week

GIE Top 25
Rank Change from last week Team Conf W-L Rating Final-rank range
1 No change Miami ACC Final-rank range 1–4 ACC 8-0 1839 Final-rank range 1 to 4, currently 1
2 Up 1 from last week Utah Head coach tenure: Y1 HC Big 12 Final-rank range 1–6 Head coach tenure: Y1 HC Big 12 8-0 1833 Final-rank range 1 to 6, currently 2
3 Up 1 from last week UCLA Head coach tenure: Y1 HC Big Ten Final-rank range 2–14 Head coach tenure: Y1 HC Big Ten 8-0 1786 Final-rank range 2 to 14, currently 3
4 Up 2 from last week Indiana Big Ten Final-rank range 3–14 Big Ten 8-1 1777 Final-rank range 3 to 14, currently 4
5 Up 5 from last week Notre Dame Ind. Final-rank range 2–17 FBS Independents 7-1 1772 Final-rank range 2 to 17, currently 5
6 Down 1 from last week Boise State Pac-12 Final-rank range 3–15 Pac-12 7-1 1769 Final-rank range 3 to 15, currently 6
7 Up 2 from last week Georgia SEC Final-rank range 3–18 SEC 7-1 1769 Final-rank range 3 to 18, currently 7
8 Down 1 from last week LSU Head coach tenure: Y1 HC SEC Final-rank range 3–20 Head coach tenure: Y1 HC SEC 6-2 1761 Final-rank range 3 to 20, currently 8
9 Up 2 from last week Wake Forest Head coach tenure: Y2 HC ACC Final-rank range 4–20 Head coach tenure: Y2 HC ACC 7-1 1750 Final-rank range 4 to 20, currently 9
10 Up 2 from last week Alabama SEC Final-rank range 6–29 SEC 6-2 1728 Final-rank range 6 to 29, currently 10
11 Up 13 from last week Missouri SEC Final-rank range 6–29 SEC 6-2 1723 Final-rank range 6 to 29, currently 11
12 Down 10 from last week Ohio State Big Ten Final-rank range 7–30 Big Ten 6-2 1722 Final-rank range 7 to 30, currently 12
13 Up 1 from last week Tennessee SEC Final-rank range 6–31 SEC 6-2 1722 Final-rank range 6 to 31, currently 13
14 Up 7 from last week Ole Miss Head coach tenure: Y1 HC SEC Final-rank range 7–31 Head coach tenure: Y1 HC SEC 6-2 1719 Final-rank range 7 to 31, currently 14
15 No change Houston Head coach tenure: Y2 HC Big 12 Final-rank range 7–33 Head coach tenure: Y2 HC Big 12 6-2 1716 Final-rank range 7 to 33, currently 15
16 Up 3 from last week Liberty CUSA Final-rank range 9–29 Conference USA 7-1 1715 Final-rank range 9 to 29, currently 16
17 Up 1 from last week BYU Big 12 Final-rank range 8–32 Big 12 7-1 1714 Final-rank range 8 to 32, currently 17
18 New entry Texas Tech Big 12 Final-rank range 8–32 Big 12 7-1 1712 Final-rank range 8 to 32, currently 18
19 Down 3 from last week UTSA American Final-rank range 8–35 American Athletic 7-1 1710 Final-rank range 8 to 35, currently 19
20 Down 12 from last week Arizona Big 12 Final-rank range 9–36 Big 12 6-2 1702 Final-rank range 9 to 36, currently 20
21 Up 1 from last week New Mexico Head coach tenure: Y2 HC MWC Final-rank range 10–38 Head coach tenure: Y2 HC Mountain West 7-1 1701 Final-rank range 10 to 38, currently 21
22 New entry Texas SEC Final-rank range 11–38 SEC 6-2 1694 Final-rank range 11 to 38, currently 22
23 Down 3 from last week Kentucky Head coach tenure: Y1 HC SEC Final-rank range 11–41 Head coach tenure: Y1 HC SEC 7-1 1692 Final-rank range 11 to 41, currently 23
24 New entry Baylor Big 12 Final-rank range 11–40 Big 12 5-3 1691 Final-rank range 11 to 40, currently 24
25 New entry South Carolina SEC Final-rank range 11–40 SEC 5-3 1690 Final-rank range 11 to 40, currently 25
See all 134 FBS teams

Underdog Watch

Games of Nov 4–7 · 2026 Week 10

Games where GIE thinks the underdog has a real, non-coin-flip path. Win probability shown is for the underdog. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Underdog Watch games
Matchup Underdog win probability
UCF vs Kansas Big 12 on the road Nov 7 Win probability for UCF: 48%
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State Big 12 at home Nov 7 Win probability for Kansas State: 47%
Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky Conference USA at home Nov 7 Win probability for Middle Tennessee: 46%
Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan Mid-American neutral site Nov 4 Win probability for Central Michigan: 43%
Penn State vs Washington Big Ten on the road Nov 7 Win probability for Penn State: 42%