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Houston

Cougars · Big 12

GIE rank
#15
of 138 FBS
Rating
1716
2026 Week 10
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
9-3
12-game season

Head coach Willie Fritz Year 2 with Houston

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
8.8
2.8 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
7 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#17 (7–33)
Make playoff
30%
Win conference
1%

Path to glory

Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)

Houston playoff probability by pivotal game result
Game Win Loss Swing
at West Virginia on road · Nov 21 · +87pp 87% 0% +87pp
vs Baylor at home · Nov 28 · +84pp 84% 0% +84pp

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Oregon State Pac-12 Win, 33-20 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Southern Non-FBS Win, 77-6 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Texas Tech Big 12 Loss, 26-28 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Georgia Southern Sun Belt Win, 42-28 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs UCF Big 12 Win, 27-17 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Kansas State Big 12 Win, 35-16 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Oklahoma State Big 12 Win, 35-32 Final
Wk 8 Oct 25 at Utah Big 12 Loss, 13-21 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Cincinnati Big 12 Win probability: 76%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Colorado Big 12 Win probability: 87%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at West Virginia Big 12 Win probability: 79%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Baylor Big 12 Win probability: 71%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Houston: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Houston sits at No. 29 overall after a 4–1 start, holding steady at a 12.1 rating following their 27–17 home win over UCF in Week 5. The Cougars have built early season momentum, though GIE projects 8.1 expected wins from here—a signal…

  • Recap

    Houston: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Houston sits at 38th overall after a 33–20 home win over Oregon State in Week 1, but the rating hasn't budged—GIE sees the Cougars holding steady at 7.4. The offense has clear execution problems: a red-zone TD rate of just 15% and…

  • Recap

    Houston: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Houston sits at 40th in the model's rankings with a 7.4 rating after a 10–3 season that included a road win over Baylor in Week 14. That 31–24 victory kept the Cougars' postseason hopes alive in a competitive Big 12 landscape. The model…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

63 score

  • Quarterback 94% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 53% (9/17) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 47% (20/33)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 42% (19/32)
  • Secondary 48% (11/16)
  • Special teams 85% (6/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.2 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Houston incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Trent WalkerWR From Oregon State Oregon State 153
Patrick OvermyerTE From UTSA UTSA 144
Javion WhiteDB From Tulane Tulane 141
Myles RowserDB From Arizona State Arizona State 120
Miller MaloneLB From Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 45
Jaden YatesLB From Ole Miss Ole Miss 40

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.9%
    58th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.5%
    48th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 34.7%
    41th — below avg
  • Late & close 7.1 yds/play
    90th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.