Bears · Big 12
Head coach Dave Aranda Year 7 with Baylor
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at BYU | 55% | 0% | +55pp |
| at Houston | 53% | 0% | +53pp |
| vs Texas Tech | 48% | 0% | +48pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Auburn SEC · neutral | Loss, 16-17 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 13 | vs Prairie View A&M Non-FBS | Win, 44-3 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Louisiana Tech Sun Belt | Win, 36-19 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Colorado Big 12 | Win, 23-13 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 4 | at Arizona State Big 12 | Win, 55-19 Final |
| Wk 6 | Bye | |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs TCU Big 12 | Loss, 6-17 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Kansas Big 12 | Loss, 24-25 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 30 | at UCF Big 12 | Win, 41-9 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | vs Iowa State Big 12 | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at BYU Big 12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Texas Tech Big 12 | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Houston Big 12 | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
68 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+1.4 rating
30 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Garrick PonderDE From Southern Miss | Southern Miss | 128 |
| Ryan DavisDE From Kansas State | Kansas State | 118 |
| Daniel CobbsS From Kansas State | Kansas State | 110 |
| DJ LagwayQB From Florida | Florida | 99 |
| Gavin FreemanWR From Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | 96 |
| Traevon MitchellDL From South Florida | South Florida | 89 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
