Texas Tech
Red Raiders · Big 12
- GIE rank
- #18
- of 138 FBS
- Rating
- 1712
- 2026 Week 10
- Record
- 7-1
- 2026 season
- Proj record
- 9-3
- 12-game season
Head coach Joey McGuire Year 5 with Texas Tech
Season projection
- Expected wins
- 9.5
- 2.5 more wins in 4 left
- Win range (90%)
- 8 to 11
- Final rank (90%)
- #19 (8–32)
- Make playoff
- 20%
- Win conference
- 3%
Path to glory
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Baylor | 75% | 0% | +75pp |
| at Oklahoma State | 74% | 0% | +74pp |
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Abilene Christian Non-FBS | Win, 33-10 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Oregon State Pac-12 | Win, 35-24 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Houston Big 12 | Win, 28-26 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Sam Houston Conference USA | Win, 49-14 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Colorado Big 12 | Win, 29-7 Final |
| Wk 6 | Bye | |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Arizona State Big 12 | Win, 53-25 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Cincinnati Big 12 | Loss, 24-37 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Arizona Big 12 | Win, 34-26 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | vs West Virginia Big 12 | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Oklahoma State Big 12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Baylor Big 12 | |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | vs TCU Big 12 | |
In the news
- Bahr’s winner lifts Texas Tech past TCU on historic ESPN2 stage (opens in a new tab)
- Texas Tech Football Cracks AP Top 10 for First Time in 2026 (opens in a new tab)
- Five Big 12 teams ranked in US LBM Coaches Poll after Week 6 (opens in a new tab)
- Texas Tech Among Nation's Final Nine Unbeaten College Football Teams (opens in a new tab)
- Texas Tech's Top-10 Recruiting Class Making Noise Across The Nation (opens in a new tab)
- 5 things that have surprised me about Texas Tech at 5-0 (opens in a new tab)
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
If QB1 is out
GIE projects a -2.5 rating drop and a -9.9pp shift in playoff probability if Texas Tech loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Returning production · 2026
51 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
+2.5 rating
20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Trey WhiteLB From San Diego State | San Diego State | 216 |
| Adam TrickLB From Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) | 206 |
| Jamond MathisLB From Kent State | Kent State | 168 |
| Julien LaventureDL From Akron | Akron | 161 |
| Jett CarpenterTE From Nevada | Nevada | 147 |
| Thomas CastellanosQB From Florida State | Florida State | 137 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.