Buckeyes · Big Ten
Head coach Ryan Day Year 8 with Ohio State
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oregon | 100% | 4% | +96pp |
| vs Northwestern | 99% | 4% | +95pp |
| at Nebraska | 100% | 6% | +93pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Ball State Mid-American | Win, 56-3 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Texas SEC | Loss, 23-24 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Kent State Mid-American | Win, 59-3 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Illinois Big Ten | Win, 42-19 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Iowa Big Ten | Win, 31-14 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs Maryland Big Ten | Win, 45-16 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Indiana Big Ten | Win, 19-15 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | at USC Big Ten | Loss, 18-30 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | vs Oregon Big Ten | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Northwestern Big Ten | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Nebraska Big Ten | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs Michigan Big Ten | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
65 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+0.6 rating
23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Earl Little Jr.S From Florida State | Florida State | 143 |
| Devin McCuinWR From UTSA | UTSA | 134 |
| Hunter WelcingTE From Northwestern | Northwestern | 116 |
| Mason WilliamsTE From Ohio | Ohio | 112 |
| Christian AlliegroLB From Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 110 |
| James SmithDT From Alabama | Alabama | 99 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
