2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Ohio State at Iowa
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Kinnick Stadium
Ohio State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 32.7
- National rank
- 1
- Proj. wins
- 9.1
- Playoff prob.
- 99%
Iowa
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 14.6
- National rank
- 22
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 44%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ohio State
87%
Iowa
13%
Iowa 90% CI: 9% – 18% Δ rating 18.1
Ohio State is the model's favorite at 87%. Iowa has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Iowa — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ohio State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Iowa offense
22 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Kinnick Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No