Conference game
Michigan at Ohio State
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Michigan 7% Underdog
Ohio State 93% Favorite
Ohio State is the model's favorite at 93%. Michigan has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.3 rating points baked in for Ohio State — venue-specific learned value (n=63 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan offense
24 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Ohio State offense
Higher fit 32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup