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Michigan

Wolverines · Big Ten

GIE rank
#52
of 138 FBS
Rating
1591
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Kyle Whittingham Year 1 with Michigan

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.7
1.7 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#57 (40–75)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Michigan's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Western Michigan Mid-American Win, 13-12 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Oklahoma SEC Win, 17-10 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs UTEP Mountain West Win, 52-17 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Iowa Big Ten Loss, 19-20 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 at Minnesota Big Ten Loss, 14-20 Final
Wk 6 Bye
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs Penn State Big Ten Win, 21-18 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Indiana Big Ten Loss, 6-13 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Rutgers Big Ten Win, 28-21 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Michigan State Big Ten Win probability: 89%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Oregon Big Ten Win probability: 27%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs UCLA Big Ten Win probability: 49%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Ohio State Big Ten Win probability: 8%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Michigan: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Michigan sits at 22nd overall with a 3–2 record after dropping last week's road matchup to Minnesota 20–14. The rating holds steady at 14.3, suggesting the loss confirmed what GIE already knew: the Wolverines are treading water in a…

  • Recap

    Michigan: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Michigan scraped past Western Michigan 13–12 in Week 1, a narrow home victory that offered little reassurance about the offense's efficiency. The Wolverines' red-zone touchdown rate of 16% underscores the problem: they're moving the ball…

  • Recap

    Michigan: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Michigan sits at No. 25 in the latest GIE ratings after a 27–9 home loss to Ohio State in Week 14—a decisive defeat that underscored the gap between the Wolverines and their conference rival. At 9–4, Michigan has work to do to salvage…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

73 score

  • Quarterback 100% (2/6)
  • Offensive line 79% (15/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (24/33)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (24/32)
  • Secondary 55% (15/21)
  • Special teams 79% (5/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.6 rating

16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Michigan incoming transfers
Player From Impact
John Henry DaleyDE From Utah Utah 284
Chris BracyS From Memphis Memphis 170
JJ BuchananWR From Utah Utah 168
Smith SnowdenCB From Utah Utah 117
Jonah Lea'eaDT From Utah Utah 66
Nathaniel StaehlingLB From North Dakota State North Dakota State 37

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 42.5%
    83th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 16.4%
    68th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 30.4%
    22th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 4.3 yds/play
    27th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.