Conference game

UCLA at Michigan

Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST

GIE win probability

UCLA 57% Favorite

Michigan 43% Underdog

UCLA 90% CI: 48–66%
Δ rating: UCLA +2.9

UCLA is the model's favorite at 57%. Michigan has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.6 rating points baked in for Michigan — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Team comparison

UCLA and Michigan compared
Measure	UCLA Big Ten	Michigan Big Ten
Record	8-0	5-3
Rating	14.4	11.5
National rank	17	27
Proj. wins	11.0	6.7
Playoff prob.	94%	0%

Game info

Venue: Michigan Stadium
Conference game: Yes
Neutral site: No

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

UCLA offense 32 / 100 Style-neutral matchup

Michigan offense Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup