UTSA
Roadrunners · American Athletic
Season Projection · 2026 W2
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
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vs North TexasHome · Nov 14 -
vs North TexasHome · Nov 14 -
vs North TexasHome · Nov 14 -
vs South FloridaHome · Oct 8 -
vs South FloridaHome · Oct 8
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 100% (4/4 )
- Offensive line 90% (18/20 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 52% (24/31 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 49% (30/38 )
- Secondary 56% (15/20 )
- Special teams 100% (7/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Elijah Baldwin LB ← UTEP 118 impact
- Miles Campbell TE ← Florida A&M 60 impact
- Nate Robinson Jr. S ← Marist 34 impact
- Drenon Fite III DL ← Louisiana 20 impact
- Collins Acheampong DL ← Bowling Green 19 impact
- Brandon High Jr. RB ← California 14 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 40.5% 72th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 20.7% 90th — elite
- 4th-down aggression 35.5% 47th — average
- Late & close 4.7 yds/play 39th — below avg
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsUT Rio Grande Valley—
- Wk 2Sep 12
atTexas StatePac-1245%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 20
atTexasSEC4%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
vsColorado StatePac-1284%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atRiceAmerican Athletic81%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 8
vsSouth FloridaAmerican Athletic60%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsNavyAmerican Athletic51%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atTulaneAmerican Athletic52%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 6
atFlorida AtlanticAmerican Athletic58%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsNorth TexasAmerican Athletic84%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atUABAmerican Athletic85%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsTulsaAmerican Athletic72%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.