2026 Week 6 · Conference game
South Florida at UTSA
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Alamodome
South Florida
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.7
- National rank
- 74
- Proj. wins
- 8.9
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.1
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
South Florida
37%
UTSA
63%
UTSA 90% CI: 54% – 71% Δ rating 0.6
UTSA is the model's favorite at 63%. South Florida has a 37% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.6 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific night-game value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
South Florida offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Alamodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No