South Florida
Bulls · American Athletic
- GIE rank
- #37
- of 138 FBS
- Rating
- 1642
- 2026 Week 10
- Record
- 6-2
- 2026 season
- Proj record
- 9-3
- 12-game season
Head coach Brian Hartline Year 1 with South Florida
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season projection
- Expected wins
- 8.5
- 2.5 more wins in 4 left
- Win range (90%)
- 7 to 10
- Final rank (90%)
- #38 (22–56)
- Make playoff
- 0%
- Win conference
- 4%
Path to glory
No remaining game changes South Florida's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Florida International Conference USA | Win, 19-9 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Army American Athletic | Win, 28-24 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Delaware State Non-FBS | Win, 59-17 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at Bowling Green Mid-American | Win, 14-6 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Temple American Athletic | Loss, 13-17 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 8 | at UTSA American Athletic | Loss, 24-31 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Kent State Mid-American | Win, 29-2 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs UAB American Athletic | Win, 30-10 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at East Carolina American Athletic | |
| Wk 11 Nov 13 | vs Memphis American Athletic | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Florida Atlantic American Athletic | |
| Wk 13 Nov 27 | vs Tulane American Athletic | |
In the news
- PFF Grades: USF Bulls at UTSA (opens in a new tab)
- What He Said, What He Meant: Coach Brian Hartline After USF’s Loss to UTSA (opens in a new tab)
- Third quarter offensive stall costs USF in a 31-24 loss at UTSA (opens in a new tab)
- ‘Unlike Any Other Atmosphere,’ ‘We Do More With Less’ — Jeff Traylor’s UTSA Answer Brian Hartline’s Noise Comments With Late Win Over USF (opens in a new tab)
- 2026 Week 6 Preview: South Florida Bulls @ UTSA Roadrunners (opens in a new tab)
- Hartline talks UTSA as USF aims to rebound (opens in a new tab)
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
If QB1 is out
GIE projects a -5.7 rating drop and a -23.0pp shift in playoff probability if South Florida loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Returning production · 2026
21 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
+0.7 rating
42 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Ayden JacksonDB From Georgia Southern | Georgia Southern | 149 |
| Kenny OdomWR From UTEP | UTEP | 117 |
| D.J. CrowtherRB From Dartmouth | Dartmouth | 73 |
| Shamar MeikleLB From Oregon State | Oregon State | 70 |
| Marshon OxleyLB From West Virginia | West Virginia | 57 |
| Za'Quan BryanCB From Minnesota | Minnesota | 54 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.