Conference game
Memphis at South Florida
Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 8:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Memphis 57% Favorite
South Florida 43% Underdog
Memphis is the model's favorite at 57%. South Florida has a 43% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for South Florida — venue-specific night-game value (n=47 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
South Florida offense
36 / 100 Style-neutral matchup