Conference game
North Texas at UTSA
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
North Texas 27% Underdog
UTSA 73% Favorite
UTSA is the model's favorite at 73%. North Texas has a 27% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Texas offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense
38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup