2026 Week 11 · Conference game
North Texas at UTSA
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Alamodome
North Texas
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -11.6
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -1.1
- National rank
- 71
- Proj. wins
- 6.7
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Texas
13%
UTSA
87%
UTSA 90% CI: 82% – 90% Δ rating 10.5
UTSA is the model's favorite at 87%. North Texas has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.4 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Texas offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Alamodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No