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North Texas

Mean Green · American Athletic

GIE rank
#33
of 138 FBS
Rating
1648
2026 Week 10
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
9-3
12-game season

Head coach Neal Brown Year 1 with North Texas

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
8.6
2.6 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
7 to 10
Final rank (90%)
#36 (22–53)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
10%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes North Texas's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Indiana Big Ten Loss, 16-52 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs UNLV Mountain West Win, 44-6 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Texas State Pac-12 Loss, 35-49 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Houston Christian Non-FBS Win, 63-14 Final
Wk 5 Oct 2 at Tulsa American Athletic Win, 45-44 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Charlotte American Athletic Win, 50-10 Final
Wk 7 Bye
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Navy American Athletic Win, 49-39 Final
Wk 9 Oct 29 vs Florida Atlantic American Athletic Win, 48-41 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Rice American Athletic Win probability: 88%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at UTSA American Athletic Win probability: 30%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Tulane American Athletic Win probability: 65%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs UAB American Athletic Win probability: 82%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    North Texas: 2026 Week 7 recap

    North Texas sits at 3–2 and rated -5.7 by GIE, holding rank 91 overall. The Mean Green's most recent signature moment came in a road thriller at Tulsa, where they edged the Golden Hurricane 45–44 in Week 5—a late-game sequence that hints…

  • Recap

    North Texas: 2026 Week 3 recap

    North Texas enters week three still seeking its first win after a brutal 52–16 road loss to Indiana in week one. The Mean Green's rating holds steady at –11.6, ranking 105th nationally—a position that reflects an offense struggling to…

  • Recap

    North Texas: 2025 Week 16 recap

    North Texas sits at 22nd overall with a 12–2 record and a rating of 13.8, but last week's 34–21 loss to Tulane stung. The Mean Green came in as the away team and couldn't generate enough offense when it mattered, falling short in a…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

11 score

  • Quarterback 2% (1/4)
  • Offensive line 38% (8/21) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 2% (9/29)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 10% (11/32)
  • Secondary 6% (7/22)
  • Special teams 0% (1/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.7 rating

46 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

North Texas incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Udoka EzeaniDL From UTEP UTEP 173
Tayven JacksonQB From UCF UCF 93
David OnuohaDL From Massachusetts Massachusetts 92
James TyreWR From Western Carolina Western Carolina 87
Aaron AlexanderLB From Arkansas State Arkansas State 80
Davion RhodesDL From Georgia Southern Georgia Southern 73

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 44.2%
    90th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 23.3%
    97th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 49.4%
    94th — elite
  • Late & close 5.8 yds/play
    69th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.