San Diego State: 2026 Week 7 recap

San Diego State sits at a 2–3 record with a rating of −7.8, holding rank 100 overall—a standing that hasn't budged since last week despite the Aztecs' narrow 31–29 home win over Texas State in Week 5. The victory showcased late-game execution (a 3.72 leverage performance), but the underlying issues remain: a 13% red-zone TD rate and a 31% third-down conversion rate both signal offensive inconsistency. GIE projects 4.3 wins for the season, with a playoff probability of zero. San Diego State heads to Oregon State this weekend needing to reverse its efficiency trends; marginal improvements in the red zone could swing close games, but the model sees little path forward without more substantial offensive gains.