Wildcats · SEC
Head coach Will Stein Year 1 with Kentucky
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Tennessee | 25% | 0% | +25pp |
| at Missouri | 21% | 0% | +21pp |
| vs Louisville | 15% | 0% | +15pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Youngstown State Non-FBS | Win, 45-13 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Alabama SEC | Loss, 17-45 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Texas A&M SEC | Win, 31-21 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs South Alabama Sun Belt | Win, 45-21 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at South Carolina SEC | Win, 35-34 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs LSU SEC | Win, 35-34 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Oklahoma SEC | Win, 21-13 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Vanderbilt SEC | Win, 34-17 Final |
| Wk 9 | Bye | |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Tennessee SEC | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Florida SEC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Missouri SEC | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs Louisville ACC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 2.8 rating drop and a 11.0pp shift in playoff probability if Kentucky loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
29 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.3 rating
33 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan CastellDB From Florida | Florida | 80 |
| Shane CarrWR From Southern Utah | Southern Utah | 60 |
| Jamarrion HarklessDL From Purdue | Purdue | 59 |
| Tyler ThomasDE From South Alabama | South Alabama | 57 |
| Dominic WisemanDT From South Alabama | South Alabama | 52 |
| Ahmad BreauxDT From LSU | LSU | 41 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
