Louisville at Kentucky

Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST

GIE win probability

Louisville 47% Underdog

Kentucky 53% Favorite

Kentucky 90% CI: 44–63%
Δ rating: Louisville +1.6

Kentucky is the model's favorite at 53%. Louisville has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.7 rating points baked in for Kentucky — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Team comparison

Louisville and Kentucky compared
Measure	Louisville ACC	Kentucky SEC
Record	5-3	7-1
Rating	12.2	10.6
National rank	25	31
Proj. wins	7.5	9.1
Playoff prob.	2%	7%

Game info

Venue: Kroger Field
Conference game: No
Neutral site: No

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Louisville offense Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup

Kentucky offense 28 / 100 Style-neutral matchup