Cardinals · ACC
Head coach Jeff Brohm Year 4 with Louisville
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia Tech | 17% | 0% | +17pp |
| at Kentucky | 16% | 0% | +16pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | vs Ole Miss SEC · neutral | Loss, 38-41 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 11 | vs Villanova Non-FBS | Win, 59-13 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs SMU ACC | Win, 41-31 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Wake Forest ACC | Loss, 27-30 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at NC State ACC | Loss, 28-31 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 9 | vs Florida State ACC | Win, 44-20 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Syracuse ACC | Win, 34-26 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Stanford ACC | Win, 52-24 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | at Georgia Tech ACC | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at North Carolina ACC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Pittsburgh ACC | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Kentucky SEC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -7.7 rating drop and a -30.7pp shift in playoff probability if Louisville loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
30 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+1.0 rating
33 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Brody FoleyTE From Tulsa | Tulsa | 209 |
| Tre RichardsonWR From Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | 159 |
| Tyler ThompsonDL From North Carolina | North Carolina | 123 |
| Koen EntringerDB From Iowa | Iowa | 108 |
| Justyn ReidTE From Tulane | Tulane | 78 |
| Lawayne McCoyWR From Florida State | Florida State | 74 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
