2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Louisville at NC State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Carter-Finley Stadium
Louisville
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 11.1
- National rank
- 27
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
NC State
ACC
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- 5.7
- National rank
- 43
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Louisville
55%
NC State
45%
NC State 90% CI: 36% – 54% Δ rating 5.4
Louisville is the model's favorite at 55%. NC State has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for NC State — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Louisville offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
NC State offense
29 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No