Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

NC State

Wolfpack · ACC

GIE rank
#71
of 138 FBS
Rating
1542
2026 Week 10
Record
4-4
2026 season
Proj record
6-6
12-game season

Head coach Dave Doeren

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.0
2.0 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
4 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#72 (51–92)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes NC State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Aug 29 at Virginia ACC Loss, 8-34 Final
Wk 2 Sep 11 vs Richmond Non-FBS Win, 73-0 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Vanderbilt SEC Loss, 31-35 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs App State Sun Belt Win, 41-31 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Louisville ACC Win, 31-28 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 vs Wake Forest ACC Loss, 14-38 Final
Wk 7 Bye
Wk 8 Oct 24 at Stanford ACC Loss, 28-31 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs California ACC Win, 31-10 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Duke ACC Win probability: 34%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Syracuse ACC Win probability: 63%
Wk 12 Nov 21 at Florida State ACC Win probability: 24%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at North Carolina ACC Win probability: 29%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    NC State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    NC State sits at 3–2 after a 31–28 home win over Louisville in Week 5, though GIE's rating remains flat at 3.4, ranking the Wolfpack 58th nationally. The stagnant movement reflects underlying offensive inefficiency: a 23% red-zone…

  • Recap

    NC State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    NC State sits at 43rd overall with a 5.7 rating after dropping its season opener to Virginia, 34–8. The Wolfpack haven't budged in GIE's assessment week-to-week, which reflects a clear problem: a red-zone touchdown rate of just 23% tells…

  • Recap

    NC State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    NC State sits at 55th overall with a 4.8 rating after an 8–5 season. The Wolfpack dominated North Carolina 42–19 in Week 14, a decisive home victory that underscored their ability to control games against ACC competition. That win capped…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

56 score

  • Quarterback 99% (4/6)
  • Offensive line 53% (10/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 31% (15/27)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 13% (22/42)
  • Secondary 67% (15/23)
  • Special teams 19% (4/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.2 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

NC State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Victor SnowWR From Buffalo Buffalo 165
Harvey Dyson IIILB From Tulane Tulane 134
King MackS From Penn State Penn State 90
Davion DozierWR From App State App State 82
Davion GauseRB From North Carolina North Carolina 54
Tad HudsonQB From Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina 52

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 39.4%
    66th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 23.1%
    97th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 42.3%
    75th — strong
  • Late & close 5.0 yds/play
    50th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.