Conference game
NC State at North Carolina
Saturday, November 28, 2026 · 12:00 AM EST
GIE win probability
NC State 33% Underdog
North Carolina 67% Favorite
North Carolina is the model's favorite at 67%. NC State has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for North Carolina — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
NC State offense
33 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
North Carolina offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup