Conference game
Duke at NC State
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 12:30 PM EST
GIE win probability
Duke 62% Favorite
NC State 38% Underdog
Duke is the model's favorite at 62%. NC State has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.9 rating points baked in for NC State — venue-specific learned value (n=57 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Duke offense
39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
NC State offense
Higher fit 41 / 100 Style-neutral matchup