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Duke

Blue Devils · ACC

GIE rank
#32
of 138 FBS
Rating
1652
2026 Week 10
Record
6-2
2026 season
Proj record
8-4
12-game season

Head coach Manny Diaz Year 3 with Duke

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
7.6
1.6 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
6 to 9
Final rank (90%)
#38 (22–55)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Duke's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 vs Tulane American Athletic Win, 17-3 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 at Illinois Big Ten Win, 31-27 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Stanford ACC Win, 35-7 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs William & Mary Non-FBS Win, 62-7 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Georgia Tech ACC Loss, 25-28 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 vs North Carolina ACC Loss, 20-24 Final
Wk 8 Oct 23 at Virginia ACC Win, 19-16 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Boston College ACC Win, 47-2 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at NC State ACC Win probability: 66%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Miami ACC Win probability: 7%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Clemson ACC Win probability: 64%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Wake Forest ACC Win probability: 27%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Duke: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Duke remains undefeated at 4-0, holding steady at No. 34 in GIE's ratings with a 10.2 score after last week's dominant 62-7 win over William & Mary. The Blue Devils haven't budged in the model's assessment, suggesting the victory—while…

  • Recap

    Duke: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Duke sits at No. 44 overall after opening with a 17–3 win over Tulane, though GIE's rating hasn't budged—still 5.6—suggesting the model views the performance as baseline rather than breakout. The real story: a red-zone TD rate of 16%…

  • Recap

    Duke: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Duke sits at 44th overall after a 27-20 road win at Virginia in Week 15, improving to 9-5 on the season. The victory keeps the Blue Devils in solid position with a 6.6 rating per GIE, though the ACC's compressed late-season schedule means…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

36 score

  • Quarterback 0% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 74% (14/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 32% (12/23)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 46% (20/30)
  • Secondary 44% (8/18)
  • Special teams 70% (5/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.2 rating

20 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Duke incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Javen NicholasWR From Charlotte Charlotte 142
Walker EgetQB From San José State San José State 131
Jared RichardsonWR From Pennsylvania Pennsylvania 94
Patrick Smith-YoungS From North Texas North Texas 87
Nate KuriskyTE From Louisville Louisville 62
Dylan FlowersCB From Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 62

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.0%
    50th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 16.0%
    65th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 52.8%
    95th — elite
  • Late & close 5.6 yds/play
    65th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.