2026 Week 8 · Conference game
Duke at Virginia
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Scott Stadium
Duke
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 5.6
- National rank
- 44
- Proj. wins
- 6.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 8.1
- National rank
- 37
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 13%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Duke
35%
Virginia
65%
Virginia 90% CI: 56% – 73% Δ rating 2.5
Virginia is the model's favorite at 65%. Duke has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Virginia — venue-specific learned value (n=54 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Duke offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Virginia offense
41 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Scott Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No