Conference game
Kentucky at Tennessee
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 6:15 PM EST
GIE win probability
Kentucky 23% Underdog
Tennessee 77% Favorite
Tennessee is the model's favorite at 77%. Kentucky has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.2 rating points baked in for Tennessee — venue-specific night-game value (n=59 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Kentucky offense
Higher fit 40 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Tennessee offense
38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup