Flames · Conference USA
Head coach Jamey Chadwell Year 4 with Liberty
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at New Mexico State | 29% | 0% | +29pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | at James Madison Sun Belt | Loss, 13-20 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Gardner-Webb Non-FBS | Win, 24-23 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Ball State Mid-American | Win, 51-15 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 24 | at Coastal Carolina Sun Belt | Win, 34-17 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 2 | at Delaware Conference USA | Win, 30-14 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 8 | vs Sam Houston Conference USA | Win, 35-3 Final |
| Wk 7 | Bye | |
| Wk 8 Oct 22 | at Kennesaw State Conference USA | Win, 34-6 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Florida International Conference USA | Win, 49-10 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | at New Mexico State Conference USA | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Middle Tennessee Conference USA | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Western Kentucky Conference USA | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Missouri State Conference USA | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a -2.6 rating drop and a -10.5pp shift in playoff probability if Liberty loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
47 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.3 rating
25 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| D-Icey HopkinsS From Georgia State | Georgia State | 102 |
| Jeremiah VesselS From UAB | UAB | 76 |
| Ashton WhitnerS From Ball State | Ball State | 63 |
| Rashawn CunninghamWR From Charleston Southern | Charleston Southern | 57 |
| Terron KellmanRB From Wyoming | Wyoming | 53 |
| Justin MarshallRB From Colorado State | Colorado State | 47 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
