2026 Week 11 · Conference game
Middle Tennessee at Liberty
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 8:30 PM UTC
Williams Stadium (VA)
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -26.5
- National rank
- 135
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Liberty
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -5.3
- National rank
- 88
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Middle Tennessee
6%
Liberty
94%
Liberty 90% CI: 92% – 96% Δ rating 21.2
Liberty is the model's favorite at 94%. Middle Tennessee has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +0.9 rating points baked in for Liberty — venue-specific learned value (n=40 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Middle Tennessee offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Liberty offense
38 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 8:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Williams Stadium (VA)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No