Ball State at Liberty
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 4:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ball State | 7 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
 Liberty Winner | 13 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 51 |
GIE pre-game call: Liberty at 97%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Ball State 3% Underdog
Liberty 97% Favorite
Liberty is the model's favorite at 97%. Ball State has a 3% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for Liberty — venue-specific learned value (n=43 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Liberty recap Liberty: 2026 Week 3 recap Liberty sits at 88th overall with a 0–1 record after dropping their opener to James Madison, 20–13. The rating hasn't budged since—GIE sees them as a 6-win team in a league-wide sense. The red-zone TD rate of 15% tells the real story;…
- Ball State recap Ball State: 2026 Week 3 recap Ball State sits at 0–1 after a 56–3 road loss to Ohio State in Week 1—a result that left the Cardinals' rating essentially flat at –25.1, ranking 133rd nationally. The margin tells you everything: this was a mismatch between…