Search 4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Ball State

Cardinals · Mid-American

GIE rank
#124
of 138 FBS
Rating
1383
2026 Week 10
Record
3-5
2026 season
Proj record
4-8
12-game season

Head coach Mike Uremovich Year 2 with Ball State

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.3
1.3 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
3 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#122 (108–131)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Ball State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Ohio State Big Ten Loss, 3-56 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Stony Brook Non-FBS Win, 41-17 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Liberty Conference USA Loss, 15-51 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Kent State Mid-American Loss, 13-26 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Toledo Mid-American Loss, 24-39 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Northwestern Big Ten Loss, 14-45 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Bowling Green Mid-American Win, 32-31 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Sacramento State Mid-American Win, 34-17 Final
Wk 9 Bye
Wk 10 Nov 5 at Massachusetts Mid-American Win probability: 19%
Wk 11 Nov 11 vs Buffalo Mid-American Win probability: 33%
Wk 12 Nov 18 at Ohio Mid-American Win probability: 7%
Wk 13 Nov 28 vs Central Michigan Mid-American Win probability: 47%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Ball State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Ball State sits at 1–4 after dropping last week's home contest to Toledo 39–24, and GIE's model shows no movement: the Cardinals remain at a –25 rating and ranked 135th. The core issue isn't variance—it's execution across the board. A…

  • Recap

    Ball State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Ball State sits at 0–1 after a 56–3 road loss to Ohio State in Week 1—a result that left the Cardinals' rating essentially flat at –25.1, ranking 133rd nationally. The margin tells you everything: this was a mismatch between…

  • Recap

    Ball State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Ball State sits at 4–8 after a 45–24 road loss to Miami (OH) in Week 14, holding a rating of –23 and ranking 132nd per GIE. The Cardinals have spent the season struggling to generate consistent offensive production and defensive stops,…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

24 score

  • Quarterback 0% (2/6)
  • Offensive line 68% (13/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 29% (12/26)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 9% (14/30)
  • Secondary 27% (12/21)
  • Special teams 6% (5/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.2 rating

25 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Ball State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
CJ NelsonWR From Eastern Illinois Eastern Illinois 36
Maverick GracioDE From Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 32
Jabari SmithWR From Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic 30
Jared BadieLB From San Diego State San Diego State 29
Johnny Thompson Jr.RB From Kansas Kansas 10
Chris JacksonDB From Colorado State Colorado State 5

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 30.3%
    16th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 12.8%
    30th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 32.7%
    31th — below avg
  • Late & close 5.5 yds/play
    62th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.