2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Ball State at Bowling Green
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -25.1
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Bowling Green
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -15.0
- National rank
- 118
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Ball State
28%
Bowling Green
72%
Bowling Green 90% CI: 64% – 79% Δ rating 10.1
Bowling Green is the model's favorite at 72%. Ball State has a 28% path. Home-field adjustment of +-2.5 rating points baked in for Bowling Green — venue-specific learned value (n=45 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
34 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Bowling Green offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Doyt L. Perry Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No