Conference game
Ball State at Ohio
Tuesday, November 17, 2026 · 7:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Ball State 5% Underdog
Ohio 95% Favorite
Ohio is the model's favorite at 95%. Ball State has a 5% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for Ohio — venue-specific night-game value (n=45 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Ball State offense
38 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Ohio offense
Higher fit 39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup