2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Toledo at Ball State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Scheumann Stadium
Toledo
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -9.1
- National rank
- 99
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Ball State
Mid-American
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -25.1
- National rank
- 133
- Proj. wins
- 2.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Toledo
84%
Ball State
16%
Ball State 90% CI: 12% – 22% Δ rating 16.0
Toledo is the model's favorite at 84%. Ball State has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.8 rating points baked in for Ball State — venue-specific learned value (n=44 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Toledo offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Ball State offense
23 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Scheumann Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No