Conference game
Toledo at Ball State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 2:00 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Toledo Winner | 6 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 39 |
 Ball State | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
GIE pre-game call: Toledo at 91%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Toledo 91% Favorite
Ball State 9% Underdog
Toledo is the model's favorite at 91%. Ball State has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.8 rating points baked in for Ball State — venue-specific learned value (n=42 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.