LSU

Tigers · SEC

GIE rank: #8; of 138 FBS
Rating: 1761; 2026 Week 10
Record: 6-2; 2026 season
Proj record: 9-3; 12-game season

Head coach Lane Kiffin Year 2 with LSU

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims

Expected wins: 8.6; 2.6 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%): 7 to 10; Range 7 to 10, currently 8.5747 012
Final rank (90%): #9 (3–20); Range 3 to 20, currently 9 1138
Make playoff: 78%; 78%
Win conference: 17%; 17%

Path to glory

Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)

LSU playoff probability by pivotal game result
Game	Win	Loss	Swing
at Tennessee on road · Nov 21 · +94pp	94%	0%	+94pp
at Arkansas on road · Nov 28 · +93pp	93%	0%	+93pp
vs Alabama at home · Nov 7 · +91pp	91%	0%	+91pp

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week	Opponent	Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5	vs Clemson ACC	Win, 51-10 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12	vs Louisiana Tech Sun Belt	Win, 45-14 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19	at Ole Miss SEC	Loss, 24-32 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26	vs Texas A&M SEC	Win, 35-6 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3	vs McNeese Non-FBS	Win, 63-14 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10	at Kentucky SEC	Loss, 34-35 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17	vs Mississippi State SEC	Win, 31-0 Final
Wk 8 Oct 24	at Auburn SEC	Win, 38-17 Final
Wk 9	Bye
Wk 10 Nov 7	vs Alabama SEC	Win probability: 70%
Wk 11 Nov 14	vs Texas SEC	Win probability: 71%
Wk 12 Nov 21	at Tennessee SEC	Win probability: 65%
Wk 13 Nov 28	at Arkansas SEC	Win probability: 95%

Latest stories

Recap Oct 5, 2026

LSU: 2026 Week 7 recap

LSU sits at 10th overall with a 4–1 record and a rating of 21.3, unchanged from last week despite the 63–14 demolition of McNeese at home. The lopsided win over a FCS opponent didn't move the needle—GIE's assessment of the Tigers remains…
Recap Sep 7, 2026

LSU: 2026 Week 3 recap

LSU sits at No. 10 with a 1–0 record and a rating of 20.4 following a dominant 51–10 home win over Clemson in Week 1. The Tigers haven't budged in GIE's view since that opener, suggesting the blowout confirmed what the model already…
Recap May 9, 2026

LSU: 2025 Week 16 recap

LSU sits at No. 32 overall with a 7–6 record after dropping a 17–13 road decision to Oklahoma in Week 14. The loss underscores a season marked by inconsistency: the Tigers have struggled to close games and generate offensive momentum when…

In the news

Show 9 more headlines

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Garrett Nussmeier

GIE projects a -3.8 rating drop and a -15.0pp shift in playoff probability if LSU loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

31 score

Quarterback 0% (0/6)
Offensive line 44% (8/18) players
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 37% (7/27)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 29% (16/31)
Secondary 59% (10/21)
Special teams 90% (4/8)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+2.5 rating

44 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

LSU incoming transfers
Player	From	Impact
Princewill UmanmielenDE From Ole Miss	Ole Miss	264
Ty BenefieldS From Boise State	Boise State	203
Jackson HarrisWR From Hawai'i	Hawai'i	176
Jayce BrownWR From Kansas State	Kansas State	151
Tre' BrownWR From Old Dominion	Old Dominion	139
TJ DotteryLB From Ole Miss	Ole Miss	105

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 32.2%

26th — below avg
Red-zone TD rate 10.5%

18th — bottom tier
4th-down aggression 29.7%

20th — bottom tier
Late & close 4.9 yds/play

44th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.