Crimson Tide · SEC
Head coach Kalen DeBoer Year 3 with Alabama
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at LSU | 99% | 3% | +96pp |
| at Vanderbilt | 99% | 4% | +95pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs East Carolina American Athletic | Win, 48-10 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Kentucky SEC | Win, 45-17 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Florida State ACC | Win, 50-36 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs South Carolina SEC | Win, 49-18 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Mississippi State SEC | Win, 56-23 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs Georgia SEC | Loss, 17-20 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at Tennessee SEC | Loss, 10-26 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs Texas A&M SEC | Win, 31-20 Final |
| Wk 9 | Bye | |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at LSU SEC | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Vanderbilt SEC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Chattanooga Non-FBS | No win prob. |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs Auburn SEC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
34 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.8 rating
21 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Devan ThompkinsDL From USC | USC | 110 |
| Noah RogersWR From NC State | NC State | 75 |
| Caleb WoodsonLB From Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech | 49 |
| Desmond UmeozuluLB From South Carolina | South Carolina | 35 |
| Kedrick Bingley-JonesDL From Mississippi State | Mississippi State | 23 |
| Josh FordTE From Oklahoma State | Oklahoma State | 18 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
