Florida State at Alabama
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 3:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida State | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 36 |
 Alabama Winner | 3 | 23 | 14 | 10 | 50 |
GIE pre-game call: Alabama at 94%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Florida State 6% Underdog
Alabama 94% Favorite
Alabama is the model's favorite at 94%. Florida State has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.7 rating points baked in for Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Florida State recap Florida State: 2026 Week 3 recap Florida State sits at No. 35 overall with a 1–0 record after dispatching New Mexico State 34–17 in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged—it remains 9.1. The Seminoles' red-zone efficiency tells a cautionary tale: they converted…
- Alabama recap Alabama: 2026 Week 3 recap Alabama sits at No. 13 after a dominant 48–10 win over East Carolina in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged from 17.6—a sign the model saw the result as expected rather than revelatory. The Crimson Tide's red-zone efficiency tells a…