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Florida State

Seminoles · ACC

GIE rank
#93
of 138 FBS
Rating
1487
2026 Week 10
Record
3-5
2026 season
Proj record
5-7
12-game season

Head coach Mike Norvell Year 7 with Florida State

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
4.6
1.6 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
3 to 6
Final rank (90%)
#91 (75–109)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Florida State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Aug 29 vs New Mexico State Conference USA Win, 34-17 Final
Wk 1 Sep 7 vs SMU ACC Loss, 24-27 Final
Wk 2 Bye
Wk 3 Sep 19 at Alabama SEC Loss, 36-50 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 vs Central Arkansas Non-FBS Win, 34-7 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Virginia ACC Win, 38-7 Final
Wk 6 Oct 9 at Louisville ACC Loss, 20-44 Final
Wk 7 Oct 17 at Miami ACC Loss, 35-43 Final
Wk 8 Bye
Wk 9 Oct 31 vs Clemson ACC Loss, 24-36 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 at Boston College ACC Win probability: 65%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at Pittsburgh ACC Win probability: 36%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs NC State ACC Win probability: 76%
Wk 13 Nov 27 vs Florida SEC Win probability: 43%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Florida State: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Florida State sits at 53rd overall with a 3–2 record after dismantling Virginia 38–7 in Week 5, though GIE's rating remains flat at 5.7. The blowout didn't move the needle because the Seminoles' underlying efficiency metrics remain…

  • Recap

    Florida State: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Florida State sits at No. 35 overall with a 1–0 record after dispatching New Mexico State 34–17 in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged—it remains 9.1. The Seminoles' red-zone efficiency tells a cautionary tale: they converted…

  • Recap

    Florida State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Florida State sits at 41st overall with a 5–7 record and a GIE rating of 7.2 heading into Week 16. The Seminoles' most recent outing, a 40–21 loss to Florida in Week 14, underscores the gap between where they are and where they need to…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

32 score

  • Quarterback 6% (3/6)
  • Offensive line 32% (6/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 60% (11/28)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (13/28)
  • Secondary 33% (12/19)
  • Special teams 0% (2/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.8 rating

22 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Florida State incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Chris JonesLB From Southern Miss Southern Miss 166
Desirrio RilesTE From East Carolina East Carolina 142
Nehemiah ChandlerDB From South Alabama South Alabama 134
Quintrevion WisnerRB From Texas Texas 104
Gemari SandsRB From Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic 95
Rylan KennedyDL From Texas A&M Texas A&M 63

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 45.5%
    94th — elite
  • Red-zone TD rate 19.9%
    88th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 50.5%
    94th — elite
  • Late & close 5.5 yds/play
    61th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.