2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Virginia at Florida State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Doak Campbell Stadium
Virginia
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 8.1
- National rank
- 37
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 13%
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-0
- Rating
- 9.1
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Virginia
39%
Florida State
61%
Florida State 90% CI: 52% – 70% Δ rating 1.0
Florida State is the model's favorite at 61%. Virginia has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.6 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Virginia offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Florida State offense
31 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No