2026 Week 1
East Carolina at Alabama
Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Bryant-Denny Stadium
East Carolina
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -2.3
- National rank
- 79
- Proj. wins
- 8.0
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Alabama
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 17.6
- National rank
- 13
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 10%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
East Carolina
4%
Alabama
96%
Alabama 90% CI: 95% – 98% Δ rating 19.9
Alabama is the model's favorite at 96%. East Carolina has a 4% path. Home-field adjustment of +6.5 rating points baked in for Alabama — venue-specific learned value (n=59 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
East Carolina offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Alabama offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Mainly clear
Temperature
103°F
Precipitation
20%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 5, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Bryant-Denny Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No