Fighting Irish · FBS Independents
Head coach Marcus Freeman Year 5 with Notre Dame
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs SMU | 98% | 33% | +65pp |
| vs Miami | 98% | 40% | +58pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | vs Wisconsin Big Ten · neutral | Win, 41-13 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Rice American Athletic | Win, 52-0 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Michigan State Big Ten | Win, 27-10 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at Purdue Big Ten | Win, 49-10 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at North Carolina ACC | Win, 37-26 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs Stanford ACC | Win, 58-7 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | at BYU Big 12 | Loss, 24-28 Final |
| Wk 8 | Bye | |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | vs Navy American Athletic · neutral | Win, 35-13 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | vs Miami ACC | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Boston College ACC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 22 | vs SMU ACC | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Syracuse ACC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
69 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.8 rating
8 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Francis BrewuDL From Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 79 |
| DJ McKinneyCB From Colorado | Colorado | 77 |
| Keon KeeleyDL From Alabama | Alabama | 70 |
| Tionne GrayDL From Oregon | Oregon | 26 |
| Jayden SandersCB From Michigan | Michigan | 26 |
| Mylan GrahamWR From Ohio State | Ohio State | 17 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
