Michigan State at Notre Dame
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 7:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michigan State | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
 Notre Dame Winner | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
GIE pre-game call: Notre Dame at 99%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Michigan State 1% Underdog
Notre Dame 99% Favorite
Notre Dame is the model's favorite at 99%. Michigan State has a 1% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.6 rating points baked in for Notre Dame — venue-specific night-game value (n=61 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- Notre Dame recap Notre Dame: 2026 Week 3 recap Notre Dame sits at No. 3 nationally with a 26.5 rating after dispatching Wisconsin 41–13 in Week 1. The Irish haven't budged in GIE's view—the rating held steady—but the dominance of that opener speaks for itself. Third-down conversion…
- Michigan State recap Michigan State: 2026 Week 3 recap Michigan State sits at 62nd overall with a 1–0 record after dispatching Toledo 30–20 in Week 1, though GIE's rating hasn't budged since the preseason—a sign the model views that win as baseline expectation rather than revelation. The…