Spartans · Big Ten
Head coach Pat Fitzgerald Year 2 with Michigan State
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Michigan State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Toledo Mid-American | Win, 30-20 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Eastern Michigan Mid-American | Win, 35-7 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Notre Dame FBS Independents | Loss, 10-27 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs Nebraska Big Ten | Loss, 13-31 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Wisconsin Big Ten | Loss, 3-31 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 10 | vs Illinois Big Ten | Loss, 37-38 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Northwestern Big Ten | Loss, 21-24 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at UCLA Big Ten | Loss, 10-28 Final |
| Wk 9 | Bye | |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Michigan Big Ten | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Washington Big Ten | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Oregon Big Ten | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Rutgers Big Ten | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 1.8 rating drop and a 7.3pp shift in playoff probability if Michigan State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
30 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+0.8 rating
30 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Cam EdwardsRB From UConn | UConn | 199 |
| Michael RichardS From Louisiana Tech | Louisiana Tech | 129 |
| Marvis ParrishRB From Western Kentucky | Western Kentucky | 109 |
| Dion CrawfordLB From Buffalo | Buffalo | 107 |
| Tre BellCB From Iowa State | Iowa State | 101 |
| Kenny Soares Jr.EDGE From NC State | NC State | 84 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
