Conference game
Illinois at Michigan State
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 3:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Illinois Winner | 10 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
 Michigan State | 0 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 37 |
GIE pre-game call: Illinois at 74%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
Illinois 74% Favorite
Michigan State 26% Underdog
Illinois is the model's favorite at 74%. Michigan State has a 26% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.2 rating points baked in for Michigan State — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.