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Illinois

Fighting Illini · Big Ten

GIE rank
#53
of 138 FBS
Rating
1589
2026 Week 10
Record
5-3
2026 season
Proj record
7-5
12-game season

Head coach Bret Bielema Year 6 with Illinois

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
6.5
1.5 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
5 to 8
Final rank (90%)
#58 (41–75)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Illinois's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 4 vs UAB American Athletic Win, 42-23 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Duke ACC Loss, 27-31 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Southern Illinois Non-FBS Win, 48-10 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Ohio State Big Ten Loss, 19-42 Final
Wk 5 Oct 3 vs Purdue Big Ten Loss, 17-24 Final
Wk 6 Oct 10 at Michigan State Big Ten Win, 38-37 Final
Wk 7 Bye
Wk 8 Oct 24 vs Oregon Big Ten Win, 21-10 Final
Wk 9 Oct 31 at Maryland Big Ten Win, 20-17 Final
Wk 10 Nov 7 vs Nebraska Big Ten Win probability: 32%
Wk 11 Nov 14 at UCLA Big Ten Win probability: 22%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Iowa Big Ten Win probability: 40%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Northwestern Big Ten Win probability: 24%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Illinois: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Illinois sits at a 2–3 record with a rating of 8.5, holding 41st in the team standings—a position that reflects a season of narrow margins and missed opportunities. Last week's loss to Purdue at home (17–24) exemplifies the problem: a…

  • Recap

    Illinois: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Illinois opened with a convincing 42–23 home win over UAB, establishing early momentum in a season where the model projects 7.5 expected wins. The Illini sit at No. 28 overall with a 1–0 record, though their rating hasn't budged…

  • Recap

    Illinois: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Illinois sits at 24th in GIE's ratings (12.9) after a 9–4 regular season that included a 20–13 home win over Northwestern in Week 14. The Illini have built a respectable campaign in the Big Ten, though they're operating in that middle…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

Returning production · 2026

33 score

  • Quarterback 0% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 63% (12/19) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 62% (16/31)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 20% (14/34)
  • Secondary 50% (12/23)
  • Special teams 0% (3/6)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.6 rating

18 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Illinois incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Alex PerryWR From Florida International Florida International 153
Katin HouserQB From East Carolina East Carolina 145
Jayshon PlattWR From Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic 138
Will HolmesDL From Utah State Utah State 88
Darrell PraterDL From Jacksonville State Jacksonville State 84
Robert EdmonsonLB From Colorado State Colorado State 65

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.3%
    76th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.6%
    50th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 40.4%
    68th — average
  • Late & close 6.6 yds/play
    84th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.