2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Purdue at Illinois
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Purdue
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -2.2
- National rank
- 78
- Proj. wins
- 3.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Illinois
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 10.4
- National rank
- 28
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Purdue
18%
Illinois
82%
Illinois 90% CI: 76% – 87% Δ rating 12.6
Illinois is the model's favorite at 82%. Purdue has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +-0.4 rating points baked in for Illinois — venue-specific learned value (n=60 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Purdue offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Illinois offense
46 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No