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Sam Houston

Bearkats · Conference USA

GIE rank
#134
of 138 FBS
Rating
1286
2026 Week 10
Record
1-7
2026 season
Proj record
2-10
12-game season

Head coach Phil Longo Year 2 with Sam Houston

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season projection

2026 W10 · 10,000 sims
Expected wins
2.1
1.1 more wins in 4 left
Win range (90%)
1 to 4
Final rank (90%)
#134 (129–137)
Make playoff
0%
Win conference
0%

Path to glory

No remaining game changes Sam Houston's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Schedule and results
Week Opponent Result or win prob.Result or win probability
Wk 1 Sep 5 at Troy Sun Belt Loss, 21-24 Final
Wk 2 Sep 12 vs Tulsa American Athletic Loss, 17-23 Final
Wk 3 Sep 19 vs Nicholls Non-FBS Win, 59-0 Final
Wk 4 Sep 26 at Texas Tech Big 12 Loss, 14-49 Final
Wk 5 Bye
Wk 6 Oct 8 at Liberty Conference USA Loss, 3-35 Final
Wk 7 Oct 15 vs Western Kentucky Conference USA Loss, 3-16 Final
Wk 8 Oct 22 vs New Mexico State Conference USA Loss, 24-30 Final
Wk 9 Oct 28 at Missouri State Conference USA Loss, 3-24 Final
Wk 10 Nov 8 at Jacksonville State Conference USA Win probability: 10%
Wk 11 Nov 14 vs Kennesaw State Conference USA Win probability: 45%
Wk 12 Nov 21 vs Middle Tennessee Conference USA Win probability: 49%
Wk 13 Nov 28 at Florida International Conference USA Win probability: 17%

Latest stories

  • Recap

    Sam Houston: 2026 Week 7 recap

    Sam Houston sits at 1–3 with a rating of –14.1, ranked 117th by GIE, and hasn't moved in the model's assessment over the past week. The Bearkats' most recent outing—a 49–14 road loss to Texas Tech in Week 4—underscored a troubling…

  • Recap

    Sam Houston: 2026 Week 3 recap

    Sam Houston sits at 0–1 after dropping a 24–21 road decision to Troy in Week 1, holding a rating of –26 and ranking 134th per GIE. The Bearkats haven't moved in the model's assessment week-to-week, suggesting the loss aligned with…

  • Recap

    Sam Houston: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Sam Houston sits at 2–10 after a 56–16 home loss to Florida International in Week 14, a result that underscores the Bearkats' struggles this season. The team's GIE rating of –27.8 places them at 135th nationally, reflecting a roster that…

In the news

More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.

If QB1 is out

Hunter Watson

GIE projects a 7.3 rating drop and a 29.1pp shift in playoff probability if Sam Houston loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Returning production · 2026

43 score

  • Quarterback 31% (2/5)
  • Offensive line 44% (7/16) players
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 68% (14/29)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (12/29)
  • Secondary 27% (8/19)
  • Special teams 1% (3/7)

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

−1.2 rating

30 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

Sam Houston incoming transfers
Player From Impact
Kamari MaxwellWR From Austin Peay Austin Peay 33
Ishmel AtkinsCB From Elon Elon 30
Alijah CasonWR From Holy Cross Holy Cross 23
Max WhisnerTE From Akron Akron 14
Caesar MageeCB From Northwestern State Northwestern State 14
Joey HunterCB From Memphis Memphis 7

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 22.5%
    6th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.7%
    38th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 36.2%
    50th — average
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play
    30th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.