Conference game
Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 2:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
Middle Tennessee 53% Favorite
Sam Houston 47% Underdog
Middle Tennessee is the model's favorite at 53%. Sam Houston has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.8 rating points baked in for Sam Houston — venue-specific learned value (n=12 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Middle Tennessee offense
Higher fit 48 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Sam Houston offense
43 / 100 Style-neutral matchup