2026 Week 8 · Conference game
New Mexico State at Sam Houston
Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
New Mexico State
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-1
- Rating
- -18.5
- National rank
- 125
- Proj. wins
- 4.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Sam Houston
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -26.0
- National rank
- 134
- Proj. wins
- 2.3
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
New Mexico State
67%
Sam Houston
33%
Sam Houston 90% CI: 26% – 42% Δ rating 7.5
New Mexico State is the model's favorite at 67%. Sam Houston has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Sam Houston — venue-specific learned value (n=9 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
New Mexico State offense
48 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Sam Houston offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Thursday, October 22, 2026 · 12:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No