Aggies · Conference USA
Head coach Tony Sanchez Year 3 with New Mexico State
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes New Mexico State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Aug 29 | at Florida State ACC | Loss, 17-34 Final |
| Wk 1 Sep 6 | vs Mercyhurst Non-FBS | Win, 51-14 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 13 | at Hawai'i Mountain West | Loss, 19-29 Final |
| Wk 3 | Bye | |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | vs New Mexico Mountain West | Loss, 18-42 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 2 | vs Western Kentucky Conference USA | Win, 34-13 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 7 | at Florida International Conference USA | Loss, 3-22 Final |
| Wk 7 | Bye | |
| Wk 8 Oct 22 | at Sam Houston Conference USA | Win, 30-24 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 29 | vs Jacksonville State Conference USA | Loss, 0-24 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 8 | vs Liberty Conference USA | |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Missouri State Conference USA | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | vs Delaware Conference USA | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Middle Tennessee Conference USA | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 1.7 rating drop and a 6.9pp shift in playoff probability if New Mexico State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
38 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.7 rating
24 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| James JonesRB From Delaware State | Delaware State | 70 |
| Trey HeddenQB From Furman | Furman | 58 |
| Josiah ThomasTE From Western Carolina | Western Carolina | 45 |
| Lyndon RavareWR From Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State | 43 |
| RJ ChapmanS From Merrimack | Merrimack | 36 |
| Tayden BarnesS From Cincinnati | Cincinnati | 27 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
