Conference game
New Mexico State at Missouri State
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 3:00 PM EST
GIE win probability
New Mexico State 47% Underdog
Missouri State 53% Favorite
Missouri State is the model's favorite at 53%. New Mexico State has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.5 rating points baked in for Missouri State — venue-specific learned value (n=8 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
New Mexico State offense
Higher fit 42 / 100 Style-neutral matchup
Missouri State offense
39 / 100 Style-neutral matchup